When the rules-based order is in collapse, marketers must embrace the chaos

Whether you’re watching the news or reading Brooklyn’s feed, these past few weeks have been another reminder that the rules-based order is in collapse. Agreements that once felt immovable are now conditional; norms are being ignored in plain sight. Power is no longer exercised through institutions, but through momentum, influence, and reaction.

In the real world, we see this clearly. In marketing, we remain in denial.

While rules crumble, our industry clings to the comforting belief that old models still apply – that chaos is just noise around an orderly system and if we stick to the playbook, everything will be fine. We act like polite European politicians, trying to apply linear rules to a world that has stopped following them. Meanwhile, brands like e.l.f. Beauty and SharkNinja are annihilating category norms and land-grabbing market share by embracing the mess.

For decades, marketing was built on stability: linear journeys and predictable cause-and-effect. You planned, you executed, you measured. You were in control.

That world is dead. Culture no longer moves top-down. Audiences don’t progress neatly from awareness to purchase. Everything influences everything else, all at once. It’s chaos.

Chaos is more strategic than we think

Chaos - yes of course, that reminds me of something. Like any self-respecting 90s raver, I grew up with a ‘chaos’ poster in my bedroom. Those weird computer-generated fractal patterns in dayglo colours. Supposedly random but generated through complex mathematical patterns.

Chaos theory might not be cool anymore, but since then theory has been widely adopted by traders and scientists alike to understand nonlinear, complex and sometimes unpredictable behaviour.

It isn’t just a poetic metaphor for the idea that “things are complicated”. It’s physics. The idea that a butterfly flapping its wings can contribute to a storm elsewhere in the world is an accurate description of how complex systems actually behave. The same is true in marketing: a marginal cultural moment becomes a mainstream flashpoint. A single touchpoint has disproportionate commercial impact. A single well-chosen comment cascades across platforms.

Chaos theory as a strategic tool

This changes the job for strategy. In a rules-based world, strategy was about control. Defining the message, channel and sequence of communications.

In chaos, strategy becomes about choreography. Not deciding how an idea travels, but designing so they can travel on their own. Not eliminating uncertainty, but increasing the probability of positive outcomes.

Meteorologists and traders don’t obsess over every single air molecule or market tick, and we shouldn’t either. We need to look for patterns and points of inflection. Where do small changes in creative, media weight, distribution or cultural context lead to disproportionate effects? Where does performance suddenly accelerate, stall or collapse without a corresponding change in input? 

In practical terms, this is about two things: integration and technology. Bringing together channels and data points to look for patterns across brand metrics, sales, share, search and cultural signals together, not in isolation. And then using AI to manage output in a way that is far more responsive and efficient. We have designed the Iris B.O.A.R. platform to help clients deal with exactly these challenges.

In chaos, the answer isn’t to try and tame the system, but to understand when and how it might tip – and where a single, well-timed flap of wings could matter more than months of orderly planning. And being ready so that when it does happen, we’re able to react.

Ben Essen is the global chief strategy officer for Iris