Research In A Time Of Crisis

Research - as anyone with a panel to peddle will tell you - can be the key that unlocks great insights and it can piece together a great puzzle. For marketers, it's a useful crutch to lean on when making decisions, while justifying them.

But an over-reliance on research can have its negatives as well, and judging by the latest IPA Bellwether report, many marketers will be going without for the short term at least; research budgets were cut by 10.5 per cent of respondents during the first quarter of this year.

That’s a sharp fall from the 3.1 per cent rise that was recorded during the previous quarter. With the introduction of the government’s new national insurance payments for employers and Trump’s tariffs damaging the world’s economy almost overnight, a net decline of 4.8 per cent of firms said they have cut their marketing budgets in recent months due to reduced revenue.

And research is a major casualty, in the short-term at least, as brands opt to work with what they already know and rely on experience or synthetic testing to see them through (though we should note here that the IPA still expects adspend growth to remain unchanged for the year, with market research expected to deliver budget increases from 3.1 per cent of companies).

“It’s a bit of a reality check after the positive growth we saw recently,” admits Bill Doris, the VP analytics, EMEA, at EssenceMediacom and the IPA Media Research Advisory Group chair. “Businesses seem to be tightening their belts, reallocating funds elsewhere amidst current economic uncertainty. That said, there’s a glimmer of hope as companies are still optimistic about increasing market research spending in the next financial year. So, while it’s a challenging moment, it looks like market research might just bounce back as businesses refocus on understanding their audiences better.”

Thankfully, the best marketers have always had the right instincts and depth of knowledge to bring their own views to decision-making.

So what are the potential pitfalls traditional research can also come with when developing a brand/campaign strategy in these troubled times?

"Research should inform and empower decision making, not determine it and not delay it," states Lynne Deason, head of creative excellence, UK for Kantar. "As with any research, the key to investing wisely is to have a very clear view on the decisions that need to be made and how research will inform and elevate that process, not for its own sake. In times of volatility, it’s easy to seek reassurance in more data, but unless you’re prepared to act on it, research can lead to inertia and overwhelm."

Of course, any reference to gut instinct necessarily comes from years of experience, but it can also be hindered by emotional biases that prevent a balanced approach. Meanwhile, a reliance on short-term metrics and data can also impede long-term brand building and decrease profitability over time. And working with old data means using potentially outdated insights that can lead to ill-informed mistakes being made.

So with this decline in place, how do agencies view the use of market research by clients currently, and how important is it at a time of such geopolitical uncertainty when things can and have changed seemingly on a daily basis?

Dan Bowers, CSO at TMW (part of Accenture Song)

I’m a total believer in the power of research, but we need to be clear on why we’re so reliant on it and honest about our underlying motives. When correctly applied, research is brilliant - but it’s too often used in a way that results in work that’s completely ‘correct’, but not especially interesting. 

There are a tonne of great campaigns out there, but there’s far too much obsession with not being wrong. Some brands are hooked on it. These ‘rightaholics’ are sleepwalking into a boring world of being perfect. Often, all research is doing is facilitating this addiction. The end result is too many ideas that fall at the first hurdle of grabbing our attention, let alone getting to the crucial points of being remembered and thought of favourably.  

Research is great at guiding, reassuring, and validating. It helps everyone feel comfortable and snuggly that we’re all doing the right thing. It gives us a lovely dopamine hit when we get full marks on our homework. But nothing great ever came from being comfortable.  

Research should be used to help brands sidestep this need for comfort, overcome their dependence on validation, and push for unexpectedness. This requires smarter, deeper, and more unexpected insights that can be gleaned from cutting-edge techniques and thinking from the world of neuro and behavioural science. Only then can you build swagger-sized confidence in taking bigger, better leaps to be more interesting, not just correct.  

Carren O’Keefe, Chief Creative Officer, Digitas UK

Market research is invaluable – it helps marketers understand audiences, validate ideas, and unlock unexpected creative opportunities. But it’s not a perfect science, and relying too heavily on it can have its pitfalls.

First, research is rarely black and white. It comes with biases – both in methodology and interpretation. One of the biggest risks is confirmation bias: seeing what we want to see rather than what the research is actually telling us.

Second, research shouldn’t be a one-and-done exercise. It’s an iterative process that helps us form hypotheses, test ideas, and refine them over time. If we take research as gospel rather than as a tool for experimentation, we risk creating work that feels predictable rather than progressive.

Finally, the best insights often come from unexpected places. Looking beyond existing customer data – exploring untapped audiences, emerging behaviours, or cultural shifts – can lead to fresher, more differentiated ideas. And using a mix of research methods ensures we get a more holistic view, rather than a narrow or surface-level read of the market.

In the end, research should be a starting point, for the magic to then happen when data meets creativity.

Ed Hayne, head of strategy, Grey London

If creativity is defined as ‘originality of thought’, an over-reliance on market research is a dangerous place to be. We all know how valuable it can be to the creative process, but if it becomes too influential, the imaginative leap required to get to truly original ideas is compromised. I should probably now drop in a Henry Ford or Steve Jobs quote, but given I’m preaching about originality, I’ll resist the temptation.

One of the other big watch outs is when research sends you off in the wrong direction. The risk of the agency or client latching onto one throwaway focus group comment (my lovely Mum has form here) is never far away and can completely derail a strategy. Equally, we’re paid to separate the useful from the interesting, so hoovering up everything we hear and playing it back over 100 slides is a recipe for confusion not clarity.

Finally, an over-reliance on quant data should be a red flag. It has an important role to play, but I remember earning 10p a survey over one Christmas uni holidays. Sample of one, but I doubt my halfhearted hungover answers were particularly helpful. A frenzy of clicks was my entrepreneurial strategy and then it was onto the next survey. I fear I’m not alone, so tread carefully.

Chris McKibben chief strategy officer Dentsu Creative

The biggest danger is user error.

Market research is your friend. But an over-reliance on comforting, reassuring, ass-covering research can lead to an under-reliance on what makes strategy - and strategists - so valuable.

Our job is to make decisions that will change the future. At our boldest, we take wildly imaginative leaps into the unknown. We’re often trying to do something that hasn’t been done before.

And market research, especially if it’s generic or off the shelf, can’t really help you with that. It can clarify what is, but extrapolation isn’t its strong point. If we’re not careful, clinging to what we know now can dull the edges of what could be. Besides, as brand-builders from Ford to Jobs have observed, people don’t know what they want – let alone what they’ll want in the future. Tempting though it may be, we can’t just outsource our jobs to a focus group or a quant study.

But we can ask them better questions. So use your market research to test your hypotheses, not confirm what you know. Ask the awkward questions and select what surprises you, or, even better, makes you uncomfortable. Use it to be braver, not safer.

Lynne Deason, head of creative excellence, UK for Kantar

In uncertain times, it’s essential to keep your finger on the pulse of how people are feeling and their lived reality. People will call out and berate at fast thumb speed brands that get it wrong. You are not your audience, your own cognitive, emotive and unconscious biases make reliance on gut feel risky. However, whilst data, analytics and audience understanding can provide very valuable insights, over-reliance on it without considering experience and gut instinct can be counterproductive. 

Volatility feels uncertain, but it’s not unprecedented. We’ve seen through the financial crisis and the pandemic that the brands who continue to invest in themselves during downturns are the ones who outperform the market. Analysis from BrandZ proves that brand investment remains the single most powerful driver of long-term growth. Essentially brands that keep their foot on the investment pedal during uncertain times are those that recover the most quicky. Just like driving a car, if you take your foot off the accelerator and put the brakes on, it takes far more fuel (investment) to get back up to speed and catch-up with the brands who left you behind.

Research can you keep in touch with the cultural zeitgeist to help ensure communications marketing activity makes a powerful, meaningful, and resonant connection with the audience. It can also provide you with the evidence you need to help the business pursue the most distinctive, bolder, braver and ultimately more effective approach and inform how to do so with even greater impact and effectiveness. When the gut-response of the stakeholders you need to convince is saying take the safer, less risky route this can be especially valuable. 

During COVID too many brands jumped on the ‘we’re with in with you” bandwagon, resulting in a wave of sadvertising that made people feel worse. Findings from this year’s Super Bowl have further substantiated what we’ve seen in previously challenging times - people want brands to be a source of levity, entertainment, and relief.  Humour can therefore be very effective during times like these as is leaning into nostalgia that’s made relevant to today.

Marketers and their insight partners need to focus on delivering high-quality, decision-ready actionable insight - not just data for data’s sake. Market research data is most effective when paired with expertise, bold thinking and informed instinct. The goal isn’t more data. It’s smarter, faster, more confident decisions.”